When to bet on football trends and when to ignore them
Trend Betting: arguments for
Most of the time it is repeating what has gone before. This concept is valid for a huge number of markets at the bookmakers’ offices: Bets on clear outcomes and totals, fouls and goal kicks, corner kicks and so on.
To prove it, we shall wait for three consecutive identical outcomes, then bet on the fourth, when winning we make a new bet “following the trend” (when losing we stop “loading” on this trend).
The average pass rate is 63.5% – if you play this betting strategy two 2 bets out of 3 go through. The effect is amplified when the teams are on the same side of related trends. For example, when Arsenal started to concede a lot and Liverpool started to score more than usual.
Betting on trends: the arguments against
Every series will come to an end sooner or later.
That’s true, but until then you’ll have time to make some good profits on the trend (if we’re talking about the long term). In the example we stopped betting at the first loss, but if we made another bet “downstream”, it would be more successful than losing. So if you have found a steady trend, but the first bet is unsuccessful, don’t get upset, it might be worth betting again.
How to do it right
A proper matchday analysis involves a complete evaluation – you cannot look at the win-loss, goals against, shots and xG stats in isolation. Only the interaction of several trends will show the real picture.
The task is more difficult if the teams follow the opposite directions of interrelated trends. For example, if Team A, which has scored 3 goals in 3 matches in a row, plays away against Team B, which has not conceded a goal in the same 3 matches, a bet on the visitors’ individual total becomes a “guessing game” – such a match is better skipped.
Influence of odds values and movements
Here we can partly agree – with a 60% pass rate you have to keep the average odds at least 1.67 (which is not the case, for example, in home matches of favourites). There are, however, consistent trends for underdogs. Underdogs in good form can also extend the series against top clubs.
It is not possible to follow trends blindly: each trend must be analyzed individually. Only by looking for well-trends with the necessary average odds and probability the balance is upheld.
Influence of odds values and movements
Here we can partly agree – with a 60% pass rate you have to keep the average odds at least 1.67 (which is not the case, for example, in home matches of favourites). There are, however, consistent trends for underdogs. Underdogs in good form can also extend the series against top clubs.
It is not possible to follow trends blindly: each trend must be analyzed individually. Only by looking for well-trends with the necessary average odds and probability the balance is upheld.
Betting against the trend
With the right analysis, it is possible to find overvalued series that are about to be broken. Again, a comprehensive analysis of the statistics will help. Here’s an example:
The statistically humble Burnley have lost only once in 10 consecutive matches (3rd to 12th round) – to cosmic Manchester City. The trend and good odds were predisposing to betting on the Borderers, but it was not worth it. Advanced statistics screamed of Burnley’s weakness. Here are just some of the statistical feats of Sean Dyche’s team from round 3 to round 12:
- Last place in the expected goals model (0.59 xG per match against a 1.3 team average);
- “Burnley have conceded 6 goals, the least in the league, but are 7th from bottom in xG (average of 1.4 xGA per match), “under-performing” by at least 6-7 goals;
- no one has allowed more shots (179, second place has 21 fewer);
- only West Bromwich hit less frequently than Burnley (91 shots).
